Nigeria vs Mozambique: Osimhen’s Firepower vs Reinildo’s Resilience — Who Reaches the Quarter-Finals?
By Kelvin Atta Amaniampong | Editor-in-Chief | 05 Jan 2026
The knockout stage has arrived, and the stakes couldn't be higher at the Complexe Sportif de Fès. The Super Eagles of Nigeria, fresh off a flawless group stage, face a Mozambique side making history in their first-ever AFCON Round of 16 appearance.
Nigeria enters this clash as the tournament’s most feared side. Under Eric Chelle, they swept Group C with nine points, scoring eight goals and showcasing a terrifying depth in attack. They rested key stars in their final group win over Uganda, meaning Victor Osimhen, Ademola Lookman, and Alex Iwobi are fresh and hungry. For the Super Eagles, anything less than a fourth continental title is a failure.
Mozambique, however, is playing with house money. The Mambas squeezed through as a best third-placed team, but their performances, including a win over Gabon, showed grit. Led by Sunderland's Reinildo Mandava and Sporting CP’s electric winger Geny Catamo, they have the tools to frustrate and the pace to shock. They know the world expects them to lose, and that makes them dangerous.
Nigeria vs Mozambique: Key Stats
📊 Head-to-head: Nigeria 4 wins, Mozambique 0 wins, 1 draw.
📊 Nigeria: Won all 3 group stage matches for the 4th time in history (1992, 2006, 2022, 2025).
📊 Nigeria: Have scored in their last 10 consecutive AFCON matches.
📊 Mozambique: This is their first-ever knockout stage match in AFCON history.
📊 Mozambique: Conceded 4 goals in the group stage (Nigeria conceded 4 as well).
What to Expect From Both Teams
Nigeria;
After heavy rotation against Uganda, Chelle will bring back the heavy hitters. The game plan will be high intensity: suffocate Mozambique with possession and isolate Osimhen against their centre-backs. The only concern is the defense, which has failed to keep a clean sheet in the tournament so far. If they concede early, panic could set in.
Mozambique;
Predicted Lineups
Nigeria (4-3-3) 🇳🇬: Nwabali; Aina, Troost-Ekong, Bassey, Onyemaechi; Ndidi, Iwobi, Dele-Bashiru; Lookman, Osimhen, Chukwueze
Mozambique (4-2-3-1) 🇲🇿: Ernani; Langa, Dove, Reinildo, Mexer; Amade, Guima; Witi, Dominguez, Catamo; Ratifo
Matchups & Players to Watch
🔹 Victor Osimhen vs Reinildo: The battle of the match. The African Player of the Year against one of La Liga’s toughest defenders.
🔹 Ademola Lookman: Nigeria’s most decisive player in the group stage. If Mozambique focuses too much on Osimhen, Lookman will punish them.
🔹 Geny Catamo: The Sporting CP winger is the Mambas’ X-factor. He has the dribbling ability to embarrass any defender.
🔹 Stanley Nwabali: Nigeria’s defense has been leaky; he may need to make a big save to keep the dream alive.
Odds Market on MSport
💵 Nigeria to win: 1.37
💵 Mozambique to win: 10.31
💵 Draw: 5.25
💵 Over 2.5 Goals: 1.89
💵 Osimhen Anytime Goalscorer: 2.02
Nigeria has the firepower, the history, and the form. Mozambique has the heart. But in knockout football, class usually tells. Expect the Super Eagles to be too strong, but don't be surprised if the Mambas make them sweat for it.
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