Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: Garcia’s Form vs Alvarez’s Threat—Who Rules the Desert Derby?

By Kelvin Atta Amaniampong | Editor-in-Chief | 07 Jan 2026

The Madrid Derby is going global! City rivals meet in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia for a massive Spanish Super Cup semi-final.

Xabi Alonso and Real Madrid are flying. They have won 4 games in a row. They just crushed Real Betis 5-1. The best part? They did it without Kylian Mbappe. The French superstar is OUT with a knee injury. But a new star is here. Gonzalo Garcia. The 21-year-old scored a perfect hat-trick on Sunday and looks unstoppable.

Atletico Madrid are frustrated. They drew 1-1 with Real Sociedad on the weekend. They are now 11 points behind league leaders Barcelona. Their title hopes are basically dead. Diego Simeone knows this cup is his best chance for a trophy. They beat Real Madrid 5-2 back in September. Can they do it again?

📊 Head-to-Head: Real Madrid 32 wins, Atletico Madrid 15 wins, 15 Draws. 

📊 The 5-2 Memory: Atletico hammered Real Madrid 5-2 in September.

📊 No Clean Sheets: Real Madrid has not kept a clean sheet against Atletico since December 2021. 

📊 New Hero: Gonzalo Garcia is the youngest player to score a perfect hat-trick in La Liga this century. 

📊 Cup Kings: Real Madrid have reached the final in 5 of the last 6 Super Cups.

Real Madrid;

No Mbappe. No Militao. No Brahim Diaz. It sounds bad but Real Madrid do not care. Xabi Alonso has found a gem in Gonzalo Garcia. He will lead the line again. The worry is defense. Trent Alexander-Arnold is a huge doubt. Youngster Dean Huijsen might have to start. They concede goals against Atletico every time they play. They need to outscore them to win.

Atletico Madrid;

Simeone is under pressure. Pablo Barrios is injured so Conor Gallagher will likely start in midfield. They are unbeaten in 5 games but too many draws are killing them. They have a mental edge from that 5-2 win. Julian Alvarez scored two goals that day. He loves playing against Real Madrid. Simeone will tell his team to be aggressive and target Real's young defenders.

Atletico Madrid (4-4-2): Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Le Normand, Hancko; Simeone, Gallagher, Koke, Baena; Sorloth, Alvarez 

Real Madrid (4-4-2): Courtois; Valverde, Huijsen, Rudiger, Carreras; Camavinga, Tchouameni; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius; Garcia

🔹 Gonzalo Garcia: The hat-trick hero. Can he do it on the big stage against Oblak? 

🔹 Julian Alvarez: He destroyed Real Madrid in September. He is Atletico’s biggest weapon. 

🔹 Alexander Sorloth: He scored on the weekend. He is a physical nightmare for defenders. 

🔹 Conor Gallagher: He has a big chance to shine in midfield with Barrios out. He brings energy.

💵 Atletico Madrid to win: 2.92
💵 Real Madrid to win: 2.45
💵 Draw: 5.25
💵 Over 2.5 Goals: 1.89
💵 Gonzalo Garcia Anytime Goalscorer: 2.90

Atletico Madrid are tough to beat but Real Madrid are scoring goals for fun. Even without Mbappe, the energy of Gonzalo Garcia and Vinicius is frightening. Atletico will score, but Real Madrid usually wins these shootout games in Saudi Arabia.

Prediction: Real Madrid 3-2 Atletico Madrid