A penny for Kylian Mbappe's thoughts right now.
His former club are in the Champions League final again. Back-to-back. Without him. PSG dismantled Monaco, Chelsea, Liverpool and Bayern Munich in the knockout rounds, scored 44 goals in this campaign — one short of the all-time record — and are ninety minutes away from becoming only the second team since Real Madrid to defend the Champions League in the modern era. Meanwhile, Mbappe is busy managing a fan revolt at the Bernabeu. Life comes at you fast.
Arsenal, on the other hand, have just won the Premier League for the first time in 22 years, are unbeaten in fourteen Champions League games this season, and are walking into a final in Budapest twenty years after Jens Lehmann's red card, Samuel Eto'o's offside escape, and Juliano Belletti's winner broke Arsene Wenger's heart in Paris. Arteta is two trophies away from completing a domestic and European double. The man who apprenticed under Wenger is now trying to finish what Wenger could not. That is a beautiful storyline if you are Arsenal, and a terrifying one if you are trying to stop them.
The Killers are headlining the pre-match show. The Puskas Arena holds 67,000. And both sets of supporters will be trying to convince themselves that a final this even is somehow a foregone conclusion.
PSG vs Arsenal: Key Stats
Head-to-head: Arsenal 3 wins, PSG 2 wins, 1 draw
Arsenal beat PSG 2-0 in last year's UCL league phase before PSG eliminated them in the semi-finals
PSG: Won 5 consecutive UCL knockout matches, scoring 44 goals in the campaign
PSG: Scored in 27 consecutive matches, only failed to score once all campaign (0-0 vs Athletic Bilbao)
PSG: Knocked out Monaco, Chelsea, Liverpool and Bayern Munich in the knockout rounds
PSG: Hakimi out with a thigh injury sustained vs Bayern. Zaire-Emery shifts to right back
Arsenal: Unbeaten in all 14 Champions League games this season, a new record
Arsenal: Nine clean sheets in Europe this season, joint-record for a single campaign
Arsenal: Premier League champions, five consecutive wins across all competitions
Arsenal: Timber serious doubt with a groin injury. Ben White definitely out
Gyokeres: 14 Premier League goals, leading Arsenal's attack all season
Vitinha: Scored in three consecutive UCL matches against English clubs this season
Photo Credit (Getty Images)
What to Expect
PSG will press high, attack wide through Kvaratskhelia and Dembele, and let Vitinha and Zaire-Emery control the tempo. The loss of Hakimi at right back is significant — Zaire-Emery shifting across is a cobbled-together solution against a team with Saka at his very best. Dembele leads the line with Doue and Kvaratskhelia around him and the three of them combined have been the most devastating attacking unit in European football this season. One PSG goal and everything changes. The pressure of being a final amplifies quickly in a stadium full of noise. Enrique will be desperate to score first, set up camp in Arsenal's half, and suffocate the game exactly the way he did against Liverpool and Chelsea.
Arsenal will be compact, organised, and patient. Nine clean sheets in Europe tells you what Arteta's defensive structure looks like under real pressure. The right back problem with Timber a doubt is the one genuine anxiety in the camp — Mosquera at right back against Kvaratskhelia is the matchup that could define the game in the first twenty minutes. If Mosquera survives that and Arsenal get through the first half level, the crowd shifts in their favour. Saka will be the difference-maker. He is in the best form of his season, Odegaard is pulling strings with calm authority, and Gyokeres has been doing things in big games all season that make you feel like he was built specifically for stages like this. Rice in midfield is the anchor that allows everyone else to play without fear.
Predicted Lineups
PSG (4-3-3)
Safonov; Zaire-Emery, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia
Arsenal (4-3-3)
Raya; Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Lewis-Skelly, Rice, Odegaard; Saka, Gyokeres, Trossard
Players to Watch
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia - The most dangerous wide player in this final and the man Arsenal's right side must contain for ninety minutes. With Mosquera potentially starting instead of Timber, the Georgian has a genuine physical and technical advantage. If Kvaratskhelia gets into rhythm in the first half, Arsenal will spend most of the evening defending.
Bukayo Saka - Arsenal's most important player and the one PSG fear most. He has been sensational since returning from injury and Zaire-Emery filling in at right back rather than a specialist full back is the kind of mismatch that Saka exploits better than anyone in European football. He is the man who can win this game in one ten-minute spell.
Vitinha - Three consecutive Champions League goals against English clubs this season. He controls PSG's midfield tempo and has been their most consistent performer in the knockout rounds. If he dominates the centre of the pitch and Rice cannot get close to him, Arsenal will spend most of the second half chasing the game.
Viktor Gyokeres - Fourteen league goals, the most of any Arsenal striker since Ian Wright was regularly embarrassing defenders. He has been clinical, physical and relentless all season and a Champions League final is exactly the kind of stage his entire career has been building towards. One chance in the box and he takes it.
Prediction
Prediction: Arsenal to win at least one half @ 1.99 | Both teams to score @ 1.79
This final is as close as a final gets. PSG are defending champions with the most potent front three in European football. Arsenal are unbeaten in fourteen Champions League games with nine clean sheets. Something has to give. PSG score because they score in everything and Kvaratskhelia against Mosquera is an uncomfortable problem for Arteta to solve. Arsenal score because Saka and Gyokeres are both operating at their peak and twenty years of waiting is the kind of motivation that turns good players into great ones in big moments. Both teams score. Arsenal find a way. Arteta finishes what Wenger started. And somewhere in Madrid, Mbappe watches his former club come up just short one more time.
