Cristiano Ronaldo is 41 years old. He plays his club football in Saudi Arabia for a team nobody outside Riyadh follows closely. He missed the March friendlies with a hamstring injury. Frank Leboeuf went on television and called him too selfish. The Portuguese public responded by not caring at all and buying every jersey in the stadium shop.
Saturday night at the Estadio Nacional in Lisbon. Twelve days before the World Cup starts. His last game on home soil before what everyone already knows is his final tournament. The crowd will be completely electric from the moment he walks out of the tunnel. And Chile, a team that finished last in CONMEBOL qualifying, conceded 27 goals in eighteen games, and lost 4-1 to New Zealand in March with ten men, are the visitors standing between Ronaldo and one last Lisbon goodbye. This matchup was not designed to be competitive. It was designed to send a squad to North America feeling good about themselves.
Portugal also happen to be without their entire PSG contingent this weekend — Joao Neves, Vitinha, Nuno Mendes, Goncalo Ramos and Lucas Hernandez all fresh from winning the Champions League final last weekend and given the days off they deserve. Which means Portugal's backup plan is Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Rafael Leao, Joao Felix and the aforementioned 41-year-old who just recovered from a hamstring injury. Chile are going to need a very good goalkeeper.
Portugal vs Chile: Key Stats
Head-to-head: Portugal 2 wins, Chile 0 wins, 2 draws from 4 meetings
Portugal: Unbeaten in 10 of their last 11 internationals, winning 9
Portugal: Beat USA 2-0 last time out, Trincao and Joao Felix on the scoresheet
Portugal: Scored at least twice in each of their last 7 matches
Portugal: Entire PSG contingent unavailable after Champions League final
Portugal: Ronaldo returns from hamstring injury that kept him out of March games
Portugal: World Cup Group K — DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia
Chile: Finished last in CONMEBOL qualifying, third consecutive World Cup missed
Chile: Won just 2 of their last 18 international matches in the qualifying cycle
Chile: Lost 4-1 to New Zealand in March with ten men
Chile: DR Congo friendly on June 9 cancelled
Photo Credit (Getty Images)
What to Expect
Portugal will not be conservative. Martinez has never been a manager who uses friendlies to sit deep and protect leads. He wants to see the system functioning, the combinations clicking, and the players arriving in North America with rhythm and goals in their legs. Ruben Neves and Samu Costa anchor the midfield. Fernandes operates just ahead of them, finding pockets of space and feeding Ronaldo with the kind of service that makes a 41-year-old look relevant on a World Cup stage. Leao on the left will spend the evening trying to decide between running at the full back and cutting inside, which for Chile's right side is roughly the same as choosing between two bad options.
Chile are rebuilding and everyone knows it. The Vidal and Sanchez generation delivered two Copa America titles in 2015 and 2016 and then slowly, painfully faded away while Chilean football figured out what came next. Cordova is the caretaker turned permanent fixture who is trying to answer that question with a squad that is genuinely young and occasionally exciting. Dario Osorio is the most talented player in this group and Saturday gives him ninety minutes against a defence that, even without Saliba's level of partner for Ruben Dias, is still significantly better than anything he faces week to week at Midtjylland. Tapia leads the line and will work hard. The problem is working hard is not the same as keeping the score respectable against this Portugal attack.
Predicted Lineups
Portugal (4-2-3-1)
D. Costa; Dalot, Dias, Veiga, Cancelo; R. Neves, S. Costa; Silva, Fernandes, Leao; Ronaldo
Chile (4-3-3)
Vigouroux; Lichnovsky, Maripan, Sierralta, Suazo; Pizarro, Loyola; Gutierrez, Osorio, Sepulveda; Tapia
Players to Watch
Cristiano Ronaldo - Let us not pretend we are watching this game for the tactical nuance. Everyone in that stadium on Saturday is watching to see if he scores. He knows it. Martinez knows it. Chile's goalkeeper Lawrence Vigouroux definitely knows it. If Ronaldo gets a chance in the first half, the Estadio Nacional will make a noise that carries all the way to North America.
Bruno Fernandes - Twenty Premier League assists this season. The all-time single-season record. He arrives at this camp as the most in-form Portuguese player available and the creative engine that makes the whole front three function. Whatever Portugal produce on Saturday flows through him first.
Dario Osorio - Chile's most exciting player and the one Cordova needs to build the next decade around. Got sent off against New Zealand in March after two yellow cards in four minutes, which tells you he plays with intensity that sometimes skips the thinking stage entirely. Against this Portugal defence he needs the intensity with slightly more discipline. One good performance here and people start paying attention.
Rafael Leao - Nine goals and nine assists for Milan this season and the width that makes Portugal's attack genuinely unpredictable. Chile's right back is going to spend ninety minutes in a situation that has no good outcome. Leao running at him in the open field is a problem with no solution that does not involve giving away a free kick near the box.
Prediction
Prediction: Portugal to win, over 2.5 goals @ 1.65
Portugal have scored at least twice in seven straight internationals. Chile have conceded at least twice in four of their last six. The quality gap is not a gap. It is a canyon. Portugal win this comfortably, Ronaldo scores because this is literally his last home game before his last World Cup and the football gods have always had a soft spot for him on nights like this, and both teams head to their next destinations with very different feelings about what the next six weeks might bring.
