Porto vs. Roma: A Battle for Survival in the Europa League

Some teams rule Europe. Others fight just to stay in the game. Right now, Porto and Roma are in that second group. Once big names in European football, both clubs are now in the Europa League playoffs, trying to prove they still matter. 

On Thursday, they face off at Estadio do Dragao for the first leg of a showdown that will decide who moves on to the last 16. The winner? A match against either Athletic Bilbao or Roma’s biggest rival—Lazio.

Porto barely made it this far. They needed a hard-fought 1-0 win over Maccabi Tel Aviv to stay in the competition. If they had tied, Braga would have taken their spot. That’s not the kind of dominance you expect from one of Portugal’s top clubs.

Their new coach, Martin Anselmi, arrived from Mexico’s Cruz Azul and won his first game, but things haven’t been smooth since. Porto lost to Olympiacos at home, then drew 2-2 against Rio Ave. Last weekend, they let Sporting Lisbon snatch a last-minute equalizer. That’s five straight league games without a win—something Porto fans aren’t used to seeing.

Their history in knockout rounds isn’t great either. Porto have won just five of their last 25 UEFA knockout matches, losing 16. But there’s hope. Four of those wins came at home. Plus, they have a perfect record against Roma, knocking them out of three different European competitions in the past.

Roma have struggled against Porto in the past, but they know how to survive in Europe. They won the Conference League in 2022, reached the Europa League final in 2023, and made the semifinals last year. They find a way to fight through tough matches.
 
Their group stage performance wasn’t perfect, but they finished ahead of Porto and secured their playoff spot with a strong 2-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt. Still, their domestic form isn’t much better than Porto’s. They’re sitting ninth in Serie A and just got knocked out of the Coppa Italia.

Claudio Ranieri has taken over as interim coach, trying to bring stability. The 73-year-old is a club legend, but his record in Europe isn’t great—he has lost nine of his last 11 knockout matches. Even worse, he has never won a European knockout match as Roma’s coach.

Another problem? Roma are bad away from home in the Europa League. They have won just three of their last 19 away games. That’s not a good sign when traveling to face Porto. 

Both teams are struggling. Both teams need this win. So what will happen?

A 1-1 draw.

Porto will have the home advantage, but their attack isn’t clicking. Roma are improving under Ranieri, but they still struggle away from home. Expect Porto to start strong, Roma to fight back, and both teams to leave with a lot to think about before the second leg.

One player who could change everything? Paulo Dybala. If he plays well, Roma’s chances improve. But if Porto’s young star Rodrigo Mora steps up, the home team could take control.

 It won’t be a pretty game, but it will be intense.