Colombia have conceded once in three games. That single number tells you most of what you need to know about Friday's tie in Kansas City.
Nestor Lorenzo's side topped Group K with seven points, finishing above Portugal after a 3-1 win over Uzbekistan, a 1-0 win over DR Congo, and a goalless draw with the Portuguese. They looked organised at the back and dangerous through Luis Diaz and James Rodriguez going forward. Argentina could wait in the quarter-finals, but Colombia will fancy their chances against whoever emerges from Switzerland and Algeria first.
Ghana squeezed through as one of the best third-placed finishers. Carlos Queiroz's side beat Panama, held England to a goalless draw, then lost 2-1 to Croatia. Four points was enough. The England performance is the one Ghana will point to, a display of defensive discipline that frustrated one of the tournament favourites for 90 minutes.
This is the first competitive meeting between the two nations.
Colombia vs Ghana: Key Stats
Colombia conceded just once across their three group matches
Colombia finished top of Group K, above Portugal
Ghana qualified as one of the best third-placed finishers with four points
Ghana kept a clean sheet against England in the group stage
First competitive meeting between the two nations
Photo Credit (GFA)
What to Expect
Colombia carry the stronger, more balanced side. Diaz stretches defences with his pace, Rodriguez pulls the strings from deeper, and Suarez leads the line after shaking off the knock that kept him to a substitute role against Portugal. Their defensive record is the foundation everything else is built on, and Lorenzo has a fully fit squad to pick from.
Ghana's route to a result is the one they used against England: sit deep, stay compact, and strike on the counter. Semenyo is their most dangerous outlet, though an ankle issue has clouded his week, and he is expected to start rather than being fully sharp. Jordan Ayew leads the line with the experience of 34 international goals behind him.
The question is whether Ghana can create enough. They managed a clean sheet against England but offered little going forward in that match, and against a Colombia defence this miserly, chances will be rare. Queiroz will likely accept that trade-off and back his side to nick something late.
Predicted Lineups
Colombia (4-3-3)
Vargas; Munoz, Lucumi, Sanchez, Mojica; Puerta, Lerma, Arias; Rodriguez, Suarez, Diaz
Ghana (4-4-2)
Asare; Senaya, Adjetey, Luckassen, Mensah; Sulemana, Partey, Owusu, Sibo; Semenyo, Ayew
Players to Watch
Luis Diaz - Colombia's most dangerous attacker, quick and direct against any full-back. Ghana's plan to defend deep hands him space to run into. He is the most likely player to break the game open.
James Rodriguez - Still Colombia's creative reference point, dictating tempo and supplying the front line. His set-piece delivery matters against a side that will defend in numbers. Ghana's midfield has to deny him time.
Antoine Semenyo - Ghana's main threat in transition, carrying an ankle issue into the match. If he is anywhere near full fitness, he gives Ghana a genuine outlet on the break. Everything they build going forward runs through him.
Thomas Partey - The anchor Ghana's defensive plan depends on. His reading of the game and composure in possession let Ghana absorb pressure without folding. He held England's midfield at arm's length and needs to repeat it.
Prediction
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.66
Colombia have the better squad and the meanest defence left in this half of the draw, and Ghana's caution plays into a low-scoring game. The Black Stars can frustrate, as England found out, but frustrating and winning are different things when your own attack has been this quiet. Expect Colombia to control the ball and win it with something in the region of a single-goal margin.
Ghana's discipline should keep the score down, which is why the under looks the safer read than backing a comfortable Colombia margin. One moment of Diaz or Rodriguez quality is the most likely difference. Colombia through, but made to work for it.
