Six defeats in nine games. Zero goals in three straight Premier League matches. And Saturday's opponents just lost at home to a Leeds United side for the first time in 45 years.
Welcome to the most chaotic fixture in the Premier League right now.
Chelsea are in freefall. Manchester United just lost to Leeds at Old Trafford. Both clubs are somehow still in the top six conversation with five or six games left. And Stamford Bridge on Saturday night is the venue where one of these teams absolutely has to stop the bleeding before everything unravels completely heading into the final straight.
Chelsea have not scored in three Premier League games. Three. No team in Europe's top five leagues has lost more matches than Chelsea since the start of March. Six losses in nine games. To put that in cold perspective, it took them 29 matches to suffer their previous six defeats combined. Whatever is happening at Stamford Bridge right now, it is not a blip. It is a collapse.
United, meanwhile, drew one and lost one since returning from the international break. Lisandro Martinez is suspended. Harry Maguire is suspended. Their two first-choice centre backs both absent for a trip to Stamford Bridge against a Chelsea side that is desperate, disorganised, and playing at home where their record against United over the last decade has been excellent. This is going to be chaotic. The data basically guarantees it.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: Key Stats
Head-to-head: Chelsea 57 wins, Manchester United 84 wins, 57 draws
Chelsea: Lost 3 consecutive Premier League matches without scoring in any of them
Chelsea: Won just 1 of their last 7 Premier League games
Chelsea: Lost just 1 of their last 12 home Premier League meetings with United
Chelsea: Six league defeats in six weeks, after six in the previous 29 games
Chelsea: Sitting sixth, closer to 11th than fifth with six games left
Manchester United: Undefeated at half time in their last 14 Premier League meetings with Chelsea
Manchester United: Drew at half time in all 5 of their last away games in all competitions
Manchester United: Won just 2 of their last 23 away league meetings with Chelsea
Manchester United: Martinez and Maguire both suspended, De Ligt still injured
Enzo Fernandez returns from suspension — created more chances than any other Blues player this season
Photo Credit (Getty Images)
What to Expect
Chelsea get Enzo Fernandez back and that matters enormously. He has created more open-play chances than any other Chelsea player this season, 46, and his return gives Rosenior options that simply did not exist in these last three goalless performances. Palmer shifts wide. Pedro leads the line with 19 goals. Neto provides pace and directness. On paper this is an attacking lineup capable of hurting anyone. The problem is Chelsea have looked fragile in every aspect of their game during this collapse and Fofana alongside Hato at centre back, with Reece James still injured and Colwill sidelined, is a defensive unit that will face questions on Saturday. The crowd at Stamford Bridge will be anxious and anxious crowds can make anxious teams even more anxious.
Manchester United are walking into this with Ayden Heaven partnering Yoro in central defence. Heaven. At Stamford Bridge. In a must-win game. Carrick has had to navigate injuries and suspensions all season and this is arguably the most difficult defensive situation yet. Bruno Fernandes is three assists from the all-time single season Premier League record of 20 and needs this game to go through him. Mbeumo is expected to return after being surprisingly benched against Leeds. The good news for United is that they have been remarkably hard to beat this season when leading or level at half time, and those five consecutive away half time draws tell you they are set up to be compact, hard to break down, and patient.
Predicted Lineups
Chelsea (4-2-3-1)
Sanchez; Gusto, Fofana, Hato, Cucurella; Caicedo, Santos; Palmer, Fernandez, Neto; Pedro
Manchester United (4-2-3-1)
Lammens; Dalot, Yoro, Heaven, Shaw; Casemiro, Mainoo; Diallo, Fernandes, Cunha; Mbeumo
Players to Watch
Enzo Fernandez - Back from suspension and immediately the most important player on this Chelsea teamsheet. Forty-six open-play chances created this season. The Blues have looked a completely different team without him and Rosenior needs him to rediscover that influence from minute one. If Fernandez controls the tempo and finds Palmer and Neto in dangerous positions, Chelsea finally score again.
Cole Palmer - Moved to the right flank with Fernandez returning but still the most creative and decisive individual in this Chelsea squad. He has the quality to win this game entirely on his own in a single moment and United's left side will need to be completely switched on around him all evening.
Bruno Fernandes - Three assists from the all-time single season Premier League record. He will be desperate to reach that milestone and his ability to find the killer pass in tight situations is United's greatest individual weapon going forward. If Caicedo cannot get tight to him early, he will carve Chelsea open.
Bryan Mbeumo - Surprisingly dropped against Leeds and expected to return here either wide or through the middle. He has been United's most consistent forward threat all season and against a Chelsea defence that has looked deeply uncertain, one run in behind could settle this match.
Prediction
Chelsea to win: 2.33
Manchester United to win: 2.31
Draw: 3.73
Over 2.5 Goals: 1.56
Prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Manchester United
The data pulls in two careful directions. Chelsea have not scored in three Premier League games but get Fernandez back and United's defensive absentees give them a real opportunity at Stamford Bridge where their home record against this opponent is excellent. United have not lost back-to-back Premier League games all season and their five consecutive away half time draws tell you they are built to frustrate and nick results rather than open up. Chelsea will finally end the goalless run with Fernandez back in the building. United will find their equaliser through Fernandes or Mbeumo. A draw keeps both clubs nervous heading into the final weeks of the season and does nothing to resolve either club's top five anxiety. Which is fitting really, because neither of these teams deserves certainty right now.
