The Champions League has a way of mocking predictions. Last season, Paris Saint-Germain finished 15th in the League Phase, stumbled into the playoffs, and yet ended the season lifting the trophy in Munich. They proved that the "safe route"—finishing in the top eight—is overrated.
This year, the script is even more chaotic. The playoff bracket isn't just a collection of scrappy underdogs hoping for a miracle; it is a graveyard of giants who slipped up.
Looking at the Round of 32 fixtures, the term "Dark Horse" takes on a new meaning. It isn't just about the plucky outsiders like Qarabag or Bodo/Glimt. It’s about the heavyweights who find themselves starting from the back of the grid.
Here are the contenders taking the long road to the final.
The Giants in Disguise
It feels absurd to classify Real Madrid as outsiders, but the table doesn't lie. Finishing 9th by a single point has forced Alvaro Arbeloa's side into a dangerous playoff against Benfica.
This is the exact scenario where Madrid usually thrives. They possess a unique psychological edge in this competition—when their backs are against the wall, they become exponentially more dangerous. Benfica at the Estádio da Luz is a formidable hurdle, but if Madrid survives this, they aren't just dark horses; they are the favorites to win the whole thing.
Then there is the defending champion, PSG. For the second year running, they have made life difficult for themselves, finishing 12th and drawing a domestic rival in Monaco. This tie is a nightmare scenario—Monaco knows PSG’s weaknesses better than anyone in Europe. But having navigated this exact treacherous path last season, PSG has the blueprint. They know how to suffer, and more importantly, they know that momentum built in February often carries you to May.
Inter Milan and Juventus also find themselves in this "too big to fail" bracket. Inter’s trip to the Arctic circle to face Bodo/Glimt is the classic European trap—a plastic pitch, freezing temperatures, and a hostile crowd. If they are not careful, they could be the biggest casualty of the round.
The Traditional Underdogs
Away from the fallen giants, there are teams that fit the traditional "Dark Horse" label—sides with the quality to beat anyone on their day.
Atalanta remains the team nobody wants to play. Raffaele Palladino ’s man-marking system is a headache for even the most organised sides. Their tie against Borussia Dortmund is arguably the tie of the round—a clash of two erratic, high-energy teams. If Atalanta clicks, they have the ceiling to replicate an Ajax 2019-style run.
Similarly, Bayer Leverkusen cannot be ignored. While they have cooled off slightly since their historic unbeaten run, Kasper Hjulmand’s side still possesses elite technical quality. A two-legged tie against Olympiacos is tricky, but Leverkusen has the control and tactical discipline to silence the chaos in Piraeus.
The Long Shots
Finally, we have the dreamers. Qarabag facing Newcastle is a mismatch on paper, but a logistical nightmare for the English side. Club Brugge faces the defensive wall of Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid, a task that feels difficult over 180 minutes.
The Verdict
The "Top 8" teams currently resting with their feet up might feel secure, but history suggests the winner could come from this weekend's chaos.
If you are looking for the team that could go all the way, keep your eyes on the winner of Real Madrid vs. Benfica. Whoever survives that clash will emerge battle-hardened and ready to upset the rhythm of the rested seeds in the Round of 16.
The long road is harder, but as PSG showed us last year, it might just be the best way to win.
