Ruben Amorim is already in charge and working hard. Preseason is about to kick off, and his training sessions will be full of energy and ideas. He wants a striker who can do more than score tap-ins. The new No.9 has to press high, carry the ball, pass well, and still finish chances like it’s no big deal.
So I decided to let the numbers speak. As MSport’s DataScout, I dug into the stats and looked at everything from shooting to passing to defending. I scored each player based on what Amorim wants for this team.
Alot of names have been linked, but three keep popping up: Victor Osimhen, Hugo Ekitike, and Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Let’s see who really deserves to wear the No.9 shirt at Old Trafford.
🔍 Methodology: What Did I Analyse? 📝
Using Python and pandas (the library, not the animals 🌝), I evaluated over 40 advanced metrics across 6 key buckets:
1️⃣Goal Threat and Efficiency: (non-penalty goals, expected goals, total shots per 90 minutes)
2️⃣Creative Output: (assists, expected assisted goals, key passes, goal-creating actions and shot-creating actions)
3️⃣Ball Carrying and Dribbling : (progressive carries, successful take-ons)
4️⃣Defensive Work Rate: (pressing actions, interceptions, ball recoveries)
5️⃣Aerial Presence: (aerial duels won, aerial duel win percentage)
6️⃣Passing and Link-Up: (overall pass completion rate, progressive passes, passes into the penalty area)
Then I normalized their stats to percentile rankings relative to forwards in the top 5 leagues and UEFA competitions and created a weighted scoring system that accounts for United’s tactical needs.
🎯 Scoring Model Weights (Based on Man Utd Needs) ⚽️
📊Goal Threat: 30% 📊Creativity and Link-Up: 20%
📊Carrying and Progression: 15%
📊Pressing and Defence: 10%
📊Aerials and Duels: 15%
📊Passing Accuracy and Composure: 10%
The weights reflect the profile of a striker who can thrive in a vertical, pressing-heavy, front-foot system under Amorim. All this analysis is making me hungry… Noodles, anyone? 😁 Anyway, let’s get into it. Using this model, I scored each player across the six categories. The winner might surprise you.
Goal Threat (30 pts max)
1. Osimhen: 27/30 = High xG (1.31), elite shot volume (7.32), but underperforms finishing slightly. Still, volume is key.
2. Mateta: 20/30 – Most efficient per shot (0.18 G/Sh), but fewer shots taken. More of a finisher than a creator.
3. Ekitike: 19/30 = Decent xG and shooting but negative xG differential shows inefficiency.
🏆🎉 Winner: Osimhen
Creativity and Link-Up (20 pts max)
1. Ekitike: 18/20= 0.29 assists, 0.25 expected assisted goals, 1.6 key passes, strong goal and shot creation. He plays like a second striker. "9.5" striker
2. Osimhen: 11/20 = Low expected assisted goals (0.08), decent shot creation, but rarely involved in build-up.
3. Mateta: 9/20 = Struggles here. Minimal creative involvement.
🏆🎉 Winner: Ekitike
Ball Carrying (15 pts max)
1. Ekitike: 14/15= Outstanding carrying numbers. 3.04 progressive carries, 1.98 into final third, 1.73 into the box.
2. Osimhen: 10/15= Good numbers, particularly into the box (1.22), but less volume.
3. Mateta: 6/15= Not his game.
🏆🎉 Winner: Ekitike 🇫🇷
Aerial Duels (15 pts max)
2. Mateta: 9/15 = Wins fewer duels (2.14) and lower percentage.
3. Ekitike: 8/15= Decent numbers, average win rate (50 percent).
🏆🎉 Winner: Osimhen 🇳🇬
Defensive Work (10 pts max)
2. Ekitike: 6/10 = Well-rounded pressing stats, helps in transitions.
3.Mateta: 4/10 = Doesn’t press much in the attacking third.
🏆🎉 Winner: Osimhen
Passing Accuracy (10 pts max)
2. Mateta: 4/10= Low passing metrics all round.
3. Osimhen: 3/10 = Often gives the ball away. Pass accuracy below average.
🏆🎉 Winner: Ekitike
📊 Final Weighted Score (out of 100) 🫅
🥈Hugo Ekitike = 66/100
🥉Jean-Philippe Mateta = 47/100
🔚 Conclusion: Who Should United Sign? 🇳🇬🔥
Hugo Ekitike offers flair, technical quality, and strong carrying metrics, but still feels one season short of top-level readiness.
Mateta is a valuable squad option, but not a United-calibre starter.
If you are chasing Champions League football, you go with the player whose numbers scream inevitable.
🔴 DataScout Verdict: Sign Victor Osimhen 🇳🇬
